MAPFRE Economics, the research arm of MAPFRE, a Spain-based insurance company, has raised its global growth forecast in its latest Economic and Industry Outlook 2025 report, projecting a 3.1% increase in global GDP for 2025, a slight upward revision from previous estimates.
The report also anticipates a 3% global growth rate for 2024, with inflation expected to reach 3.5% in 2025 before easing to 3% by 2026.
This optimistic forecast reflects expectations of continued economic expansion driven by several factors, including robust employment figures, rising wages, and more favourable interest rates.
Although fiscal policies are expected to remain restrictive, resulting in a net deficit, these conditions are still expected to contribute to stability in the global economy.
In the United States, MAPFRE Economics predicts a growth rate of 2.5% in 2025, followed by 2% in 2026. The US economy is expected to sustain its growth, bolstered by strong consumer spending, a stable labour market, and consistent investment activity, despite challenges arising from trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
The Eurozone, however, is forecast to continue its sluggish performance due to unresolved structural issues and uncertain trade dynamics. MAPFRE forecasts EU GDP growth of just 1.1% in 2025, with a modest recovery to 1.4% in 2026. Inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2025 and drop to 1.7% in 2026.
Emerging economies are expected to experience moderate growth, with GDP growth predicted at 3.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. Inflation in these regions is projected at 4.5% in 2025, easing to 3.8% by 2026.
The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to see strong growth, with projections of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. This performance is driven by resilience within the region, with inflation remaining low at 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
China’s economy is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, demonstrating resilience despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. Inflation in China is expected to remain low, at 0.7% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
In Latin America, growth is projected to remain modest, with GDP expected to rise by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The region’s economic performance will be heavily influenced by its relationship with the United States, which could increase vulnerabilities. Inflation in Latin America is projected to average 8.6% in 2025 and 8% in 2026.
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