Nearly one in seven (13.7%) US home hunters say a concern for natural disasters or climate risks within their area is a reason they are likely to move in the next year, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
A Redfin-commissioned survey which was conducted by Ipsos in September 2024, was distributed to 1,802 US homeowners and renters aged 18-65.
According to Redfin, 904 respondents indicated that they will move homes within the next year.
As well as this, for the first time since 2010, homes with a lower disaster risk are reportedly seeing their prices rise faster than those more exposed.
Redfin’s report notes that the total value of US homes facing low risk of extreme heat is up 7% year over year to $17.7 trillion, while the total value of homes facing high risk of extreme heat is up 6.3% to $29.7 trillion.
The total value of homes facing low flood risk is up 6.7% year over year to $40.2 trillion, and the total value of homes facing high flood risk is up 6% to $7.2 trillion.
Additionally, the total value of homes facing low fire risk is up 6.6% year over year to $39 trillion, while the total value of homes facing high fire risk is up 6.4% to $8.4 trillion.
It’s important to address that while these differences are small, they are notable because this year reportedly marked the first time since 2010 that low-risk homes across all three categories: heat, flood and fire, rose in value faster than high-risk homes.
Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa, commented: “The fact that this is happening across risk types—and thus, across the country—is some of the best evidence we have that climate change is impacting people’s homebuying decisions. With climate catastrophes becoming increasingly frequent and calamitous, many people have decided they don’t want to live in risky areas. And with insurance costs skyrocketing, many risky areas that were once affordable have become prohibitively expensive. The reality of climate change is setting in and it’s causing a reckoning; people are putting disaster risk higher on their list of considerations when looking for a home.”
Moreover, recent shifts in where Americans are choosing to live also suggest that people may be growing more responsive to climate risk.
In California, high-fire-risk areas saw more people leave than move in the last year—a reversal from the prior year.
Another Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos in October found that nearly one-third of young adults say hurricane Helene made them reconsider where they want to live in the future.
Perhaps one key reason why the value of low-risk homes is rising faster than the value of high-risk homes across the US is that Florida and Texas – two states that face high natural disaster risk – have seen among the slowest home value growth in the nation over the last year.
In some areas, including hurricane-prone parts of Florida, that’s likely due to natural disaster risk itself, but also because of the rising costs of insurance and property taxes, has also hurt demand.
Both Florida and Texas are building more homes than anywhere else across the country, which is likely putting a lid on value growth.
However, while climate risk has become a top consideration for some house hunters across the US, this is not the case for everyone, as according to Redfin, there are still more people moving into than out of disaster-prone America as a whole, which is one reason home values in disaster-prone areas are continuing to climb.
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