Aon, a global professional services firm, has been certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) to launch its new Florida Flood v3.0 model statewide to assess flood exposures in the state and inform re/insurers’ rate filings.
Florida Flood v3.0 was developed by Impact Forecasting, Aon’s catastrophe model, in collaboration with global flood and climate risk modelling firm Fathom.
The new model enables clients to leverage the latest data, analytics, and research to quantify flood risk from tropical and non-tropical weather systems across all three flood sub-perils: riverine (fluvial), surface (pluvial) flooding, and tropical cyclone storm surge.
According to Aon’s Catastrophe Insight, the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) annual average loss in Florida has exceeded $1.1 billion since 2004.
In 2022 alone, Hurricane Ian caused NFIP payouts of over $5.1 billion on a price-inflated basis. The Florida Flood v3.0 model is available in Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS 18 catastrophe modelling suite, which is an open, multi-vendor modelling platform customisable to align with a client’s own view of risk.
Some features include high-resolution hazard footprints, annual average loss and probable maximum loss estimates, informed by customised portfolio and geographic attributes, first-floor building height calculations based on high-resolution terrain data, building codes, and flood inundation depths for all modelled locations.
It also includes a shared stochastic and historical catalogue with the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone–Wind (FCHLPM) Model v2.0 and the US Flood Model v3.0. The catalogue comprises 92,000 non-tropical cyclone events and 56,000 tropical cyclone events impacting Florida and incorporates structural flood defences derived from federal, state, and local data sources.
David Colbus, regulatory and compliance lead for Impact Forecasting at Aon, said, “Aon’s new flood model supports our clients with rate-making and underwriting as they seek to navigate volatility and build resilience in their Florida portfolios.
“As we continue to evolve our modelling suite and innovate on behalf of clients, we enhance clarity and confidence around flood exposures and assist the pursuit of profitable growth opportunities – which requires the accurate assessment and pricing of risk.”
Stuart Whitfield, Chief Executive Officer at Fathom, added, “We’re proud to see our flood hazard data supporting Aon’s Florida Flood model, providing re/insurers with intelligence to develop a robust view of flood risk.
“This initiative underscores the depth of our longstanding collaboration with Aon and highlights our shared commitment to deliver actionable insights that empower better decision-making for re/insurers statewide.”
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