Zurich-based catastrophe insurance data provider PERILS has disclosed an initial industry loss estimate of €1.568 billion (USD 1.74 billion) for the floods in southern Germany from 31st May to 6th June 2024.
The estimate provided by PERILS is based on loss data collected from affected insurers, and in line with its coverage definition for Europe, covers the property line of business.
PERILS explains that most of the industry loss occurred in the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg.
The flooding was caused by an Atlantic low named “Orinoco” that deviated from its usual west-east path to move south-easterly towards the northern Mediterranean, before tracking north-eastwards towards central Europe.
Thick with warm and moist air, it continued to track slowly northwards over the Alpine Mountain range, where it underwent uplift and was then blocked over southern Germany by a stationary high-pressure system over Scandinavia, explained PERILS.
This weather pattern resulted in prolonged extreme rainfall in some areas, with up to 223mm in three days over southern Germany.
Luzi Hitz, Product Manager, PERILS, commented: “It is striking that the three wettest Mays on record for Germany have occurred during the last 18 years. At the same time, the country’s average annual temperature has risen by 1.6 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.
“Given that the air’s capacity to hold moisture rises with increasing temperatures, it is plausible that the warming climate will result in more precipitation in the form of prolonged periods of heavy rainfall, potentially leading to further floods similar to those experienced in southern Germany in early June.”
PERILS will disclose an updated estimate of the market loss from these floods on September 6th, 2024, three months after the event’s end date.
For the same event, Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions business previously estimated an insured loss range of €2.4-3.6 billion (USD 2.6 billion and USD 3.9 billion), and Moody’s RMS Event Response expects an estimated insured loss within the range of €2-3 billion (USD 2.1 billion to USD 3.2 billion).
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